Roy Gagaza has seen a lot of market changes over the years, but the big one that seems to be a gamechanger only comes around every decade or so. In the 1980s, it was the end of the Reagan years and the beginning of the 1990s Recession that dramatically wiped out the pension retirement and created the 401k perspective. In the 2000s, it was the real estate bubble and subsequent crash that redefined consumer finance. And, most recently, Roy Gagaza believes the COVID impact of 2020 and the Great Retirement wave is reshaping society again. However, he's not so sure it will end up being a permanent shift. That's because a lot of folks are suddenly looking at the economy going forward and rethinking their decision to retire early.
The Great Retirement caught everyone by surprise. Even
veterans like Roy Gagaza didn't expect
the size of the walkout that occurred across multiple industries. Office
managers, pilots, farmers, sports players, teachers, and more all decided to
hang up their name tags and walk out from their jobs permanently. And the Great
Retirement wave seemed to pick up steam and grow exponentially as 2020 morphed
into 2021. However, many assumed that the market as a whole was going to keep
moving forward and growing. Unfortunately, similar to the end of the 1980s, the
current U.S. economy is now stumbling with inflation and shrinkage, unable to
sustain itself.
Roy Gagaza suspects as reality hits
with rising costs, restricted retirement income, and a realization that
personal savings aren't going as far as many assumed, a lot of the Great
Retirement departees will be returning to the workforce in a few months,
especially if the economy does go headlong into a full Recession in 2022.
Unfortunately, many of these former careerists will find that their old
positions were eliminated for cash savings or snapped up by competing workers
who remained, essentially wiping out any chance of a return to their old job.
Instead, those who come back will probably end up having to cobble part-time
roles and freelancing together to make things work, usually arriving at far
less than their prior earning level. How does Roy
Gagaza know this likely end of the Great Retirement story? It's the same
one that played out in the 1980s and again in the heady mid-2000s. History
repeats itself constantly.
While there will probably be no great quotes by Roy Y. Gagaza on the side of statues or
coins, his perspective is rooted in experience and the cyclical nature of the
economy. And, just like 2009, everyone again is coming off of a bubble and
probably entering into another rough four or five years before things stabilize
again. However, there's one difference that could make the Great Retirement
reverse itself faster that didn't exist since the late 1970s. The current
inflation spike is going to be brutal on retirement accounts if sustained. And
as savings accounts erode with sustained inflation, Roy Gagaza expects the quick end to
retirements will accelerate in 2023. No surprise, holding onto one's job right
now is not a bad idea. Cash rules on these types of days.
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